What are the worst and best-case economic scenarios that could arise by the time projects in NDF 5,6 and 7 complete 3-5 years from now?
Best case, we have a soft landing or a very mild recession, followed by moderate growth.
If you look at the last six recessions, five followed this pattern.
We’ll be well into economic recovery when we are ready to sell our assets.
Historically, interest rates decline significantly after a recession, so buyers will be more plentiful than they are now.
We should be able to sell the assets faster and for a better price.
Worst case, we have a longer / harder recession, with slow growth following.
If you look at the last six recessions, one followed this pattern.
With a slower economy, there won’t be as many buyers, and the prices might be softer than the first scenario.
We may need to hold assets (which will be generating good quarterly cash flow at this point) for a few years long until we find the most optimal time to sell.
The IRR will be a little less in this case.
Of course, the stock market won’t do well in this market either, so we’ll still beat “the next mostly likely place to invest”.